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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: January 16, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 17-23, 2025
Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm is expected in most parts of southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao .
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: January 16, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 17-23, 2025
Warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: January 16, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 17-23, 2025
Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: January 16, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 20-26, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 10-20mm is expected in northern Samar, southern Palawan, and Sultan Kudarat.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: January 16, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 20-26, 2025
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: January 16, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 20-26, 2025
Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Northern and Central Luzon while Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 13-19, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in northern and southern Luzon and western Mindanao .
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Luzon and south western Mindanao .
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 20-26, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island and some areas in northern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 27- Feb 09, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Zambales, Bicol Region, Negros Island, Cebu, Bohol, and some areas in northern Mindanao and Zamboanga City where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in northern and southern Luzon, Negros Island and southern Mindanao.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 13, 2025
Week Validity: Jan 14-22, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Palawan, Bicol Region, Eastern and Central Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.