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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: September 19, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 20-26, 2024
Increase of rainfall of 40-100mm is likely in most parts of Ilocos Region, CAR and Central Luzon while rainfall deficit of 10-40mm is forecasted over the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: September 19, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 20-26, 2024
Near to slightly warmer average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: September 19, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 20-26, 2024
Southwest Monsoon affecting the western section of Luzon. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: September 19, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 27- Oct 03, 2024
Rainfall deficit of -20-60mm is likely over most parts of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: September 19, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 27- Oct 03, 2024
Near to slightly warmer average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: September 19, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 27- Oct 03, 2024
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 15, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 16-22, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Cagayan Valley & southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in western Luzon and northern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas and some areas in northern and western Mindanao while Cagayan, Isabela, Bicol Region and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall conditions.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 15, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 23-29, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of extreme northern Luzon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, southern Panay, and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Caraga Region, will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of extreme northern Luzon, some areas in southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas, southern Panay, and northern and eastern parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 15, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 30- Oct 13, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, and Sarangani while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall conditions.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern & Central Luzon, Mindoro, Eastern Visayas, Negros Island, and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall conditions.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern & Central Luzon, Mindoro, Eastern Visayas, Negros Island, and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall conditions.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 15, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 16-24, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Cagayan Valley & southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in central and southern Luzon and some areas in northern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall.