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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: November 21, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 22-28, 2024
Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm is most likely in most parts of the country except in eastern Mindanao where there is 20-60mm increase of rainfall is expected.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: November 21, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 22-28, 2024
Warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in eastern Mindanao where near to slightly warmer temperature is expected.
Initial Condition: November 21, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 22-28, 2024
Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon, Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: November 21, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 05, 2024
Increase of Rainfall of 20-80mm is most likely in Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, and in most parts of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: November 21, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 05, 2024
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: November 21, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 05, 2024
Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern and Central Luzon, Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 17, 2024
Week Validity: November 17, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Panay Island, and northern part of Negros Island while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Luzon and central Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central and southern Luzon and western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 17, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 25- Dec 01, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in western and central Luzon, Caraga Region and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and central Luzon, western Visayas, and eastern and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 17, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 2-15, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and southern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, and eastern parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, and Visayas while most parts of southern Luzon and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 17, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 18-26, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Panay Island, and northern part of Negros Island while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of eastern and southern Luzon, and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, most of Visayas, and northern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of eastern and southern Luzon, and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, most of Visayas, and northern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.