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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: March 04, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 05-11, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 20-70mm is expected over eastern parts of Luzon, CAR, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Palawan, Or. Mindoro, Northern and Eastern Samar, Aklan, Capiz, and most parts of Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 04, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 05-11, 2025
Slightly warmer to warmer than average air temperature will likely be experienced in Luzon and Visayas while near average surface air temperatures is expected in Mindanao.
Initial Condition: March 04, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 05-11, 2025
Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: March 04, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 12-18, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 20-70mm is expected over eastern parts of Luzon, CAR, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Palawan, Or. Mindoro, Northern and Eastern Samar, Aklan, Capiz, and most parts of Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 04, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 12-18, 2025
Near to slightly warmer than average air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: March 04, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 12-18, 2025
Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 02, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 03-9, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, and central parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Cagayan Valley , southwestern parts of Luzon, Samar provinces and Caraga Region where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Samar provinces, and Caraga Region while Bicol Region and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 02, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 10-16, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Cagayan Valley , Ilocos Region, Mindoro, and Samar provinces where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, while Bicol Region and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 02, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 17-30, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, and central parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in eastern parts of Northern Luzon, southern Luzon ands some areas in western parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and southern Luzon and some areas in western parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 02, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 03-11, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Samar provinces, and eastern and northern parts of Mindanao while the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in Northern Luzon, western parts of Central Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, Panay Island, and Samar provinces while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern and western Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, and Panay Island while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.