-
This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
-
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
-
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
-
Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
-
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
-
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: March 06, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 07-13, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 10-20mm is expected in Cagayan, Isabela, most parts of CAR, and Palawan; while 10-20mm rainfall deficit for the rest of Luzon.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 06, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 07-13, 2025
Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon and Samar provinces while near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature is expected for the rest of Visayas and most of Mindanao.
Initial Condition: March 06, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 07-13, 2025
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: March 06, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 14-20, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 10-40mm is expected in most parts of northern and central Luzon while 10-30mm rainfall deficit for the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 06, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 14-20, 2025
Near to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: March 06, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 14-20, 2025
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: 03 April 2025
Week Validity: Apr 04-10, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan Valley, central and southern Luzon, and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southern parts Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan Valley, and in central and southern Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: 03 April 2025
Week Validity: Apr 11-17, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon and Samar provinces where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern & western Luzon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, and Palawan where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southern parts Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan Valley, central Luzon, Marinduque, and some areas in eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: 03 April 2025
Week Validity: Apr 18-May 01, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in Luzon. Easten and Central Visayas, and some areas in eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: 03 April 2025
Week Validity: Apr 04-12, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon and southern Palawan where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Luzon and southern Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Luzon.